Sources of figures and data
Japan's Asset Bubble of the 1980s
Sources of figures and data
A list of which sources the figures and text data come from. Click the heading to expand.
Read MoreNumerical ledger (11 items)
Read moreSources of the figures
| Chart | What the figure represents | Value | Time/Period | Source and location |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Figure 1 | Chart without numbers | — | — | — |
| Figure 2 | Average year-on-year rate of change in land prices (three major metropolitan areas, all uses, as of July 1 each year) | 2.9% | 1985-07-01 | Land Price Research Division, Land and Water Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Table (Three major metropolitan areas, all uses) |
| Figure 2 | Average year-on-year rate of change in land prices (three major metropolitan areas, all uses, as of July 1 each year) | 7.1% | 1986-07-01 | Land Price Research Division, Land and Water Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Table (Three major metropolitan areas, all uses) |
| Figure 2 | Average year-on-year rate of change in land prices (three major metropolitan areas, all uses, as of July 1 each year) | 34.4% | 1987-07-01 | Land Price Research Division, Land and Water Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Table (Three major metropolitan areas, all uses) |
| Figure 2 | Average year-on-year rate of change in land prices (three major metropolitan areas, all uses, as of July 1 each year) | 22.4% | 1988-07-01 | Land Price Research Division, Land and Water Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Table (Three major metropolitan areas, all uses) |
| Figure 2 | Average year-on-year rate of change in land prices (three major metropolitan areas, all uses, as of July 1 each year) | 13.9% | 1989-07-01 | Land Price Research Division, Land and Water Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Table (Three major metropolitan areas, all uses) |
| Figure 2 | Average year-on-year rate of change in land prices (three major metropolitan areas, all uses, as of July 1 each year) | 21.5% | 1990-07-01 | Land Price Research Division, Land and Water Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Table (Three major metropolitan areas, all uses) |
| Figure 2 | Average year-on-year rate of change in land prices (three major metropolitan areas, all uses, as of July 1 each year) | -3.2% | 1991-07-01 | Land Price Research Division, Land and Water Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Table (Three major metropolitan areas, all uses) |
| Figure 2 | Average year-on-year rate of change in land prices (three major metropolitan areas, all uses, as of July 1 each year) | -14.2% | 1992-07-01 | Land Price Research Division, Land and Water Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Table (Three major metropolitan areas, all uses) |
| Figure 2 | Average year-on-year rate of change in land prices (three major metropolitan areas, all uses, as of July 1 each year) | -12.7% | 1993-07-01 | Land Price Research Division, Land and Water Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Table (Three major metropolitan areas, all uses) |
| Figure 2 | Average year-on-year rate of change in land prices (three major metropolitan areas, all uses, as of July 1 each year) | -7.1% | 1994-07-01 | Land Price Research Division, Land and Water Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Table (Three major metropolitan areas, all uses) |
| Figure 2 | Average year-on-year rate of change in land prices (three major metropolitan areas, all uses, as of July 1 each year) | -6.0% | 1995-07-01 | Land Price Research Division, Land and Water Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Table (Three major metropolitan areas, all uses) |
| Figure 2 | Average year-on-year rate of change in land prices (three major metropolitan areas, all uses, as of July 1 each year) | -6.5% | 1996-07-01 | Land Price Research Division, Land and Water Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Table (Three major metropolitan areas, all uses) |
| Figure 3 | Official discount rate raised to 3.25% (1st rate hike) | — | 1989-05-31 | Bank of Japan |
| Figure 3 | Final trading day. Nikkei average closing price: 38,915 yen | — | 1989-12-29 | Nikkei Inc. 2011 |
| Figure 3 | Official discount rate 5.25% | — | 1990-03-20 | Bank of Japan |
| Figure 3 | Ministry of Finance Banking Bureau's directive 'On the Control of Land-Related Financing' | — | 1990-03-27 | National Diet Library, Search System for Minutes of the Diet 1990 |
| Figure 3 | Official discount rate 6.0% | — | 1990-08-30 | Bank of Japan |
| Figure 3 | Urban Land Price Index for the six major cities peaks | — | 1990-09 | Kunio Okina, Masaaki Shirakawa, Shigenori Shiratsuka 2001 |
| Figure 3 | Cabinet decision on the 'General Principles for Comprehensive Land Policy' | — | 1991-01-25 | National Diet Library, Search System for Minutes of the Diet 1992 |
| Figure 3 | Peak | — | 1991-02 | Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office |
| Figure 3 | Lifting of the Total Volume Control | — | 1991-12 | National Diet Library, Search System for Minutes of Diet Proceedings, 1992 |
| Figure 4 | Cumulative Losses on Disposal of Non-Performing Loans of All Banks (since FY1992) | 1.6 | 1993-03-31 | Financial Services Agency, Supervisory Coordination Division, Supervisory Bureau 2020 Table 5 "Cumulative total from FY1992 onwards" |
| Figure 4 | Cumulative Losses on Disposal of Non-Performing Loans of All Banks (since FY1992) | 5.5 | 1994-03-31 | Financial Services Agency, Supervisory Coordination Division, Supervisory Bureau 2020 Table 5 "Cumulative total from FY1992 onwards" |
| Figure 4 | Cumulative Losses on Disposal of Non-Performing Loans of All Banks (since FY1992) | 10.7 | 1995-03-31 | Financial Services Agency, Supervisory Coordination Division, Supervisory Bureau 2020 Table 5 "Cumulative total from FY1992 onwards" |
| Figure 4 | Cumulative Losses on Disposal of Non-Performing Loans of All Banks (since FY1992) | 24.1 | 1996-03-31 | Financial Services Agency, Supervisory Coordination Division, Supervisory Bureau 2020 Table 5 "Cumulative total from FY1992 onwards" |
| Figure 4 | Cumulative Losses on Disposal of Non-Performing Loans of All Banks (since FY1992) | 31.9 | 1997-03-31 | Financial Services Agency, Supervisory Coordination Division, Supervisory Bureau 2020 Table 5 "Cumulative total from FY1992 onwards" |
| Figure 4 | Cumulative Losses on Disposal of Non-Performing Loans of All Banks (since FY1992) | 45.1 | 1998-03-31 | Financial Services Agency, Supervisory Coordination Division, Supervisory Bureau 2020 Table 5 "Cumulative total from FY1992 onwards" |
| Figure 4 | Cumulative Losses on Disposal of Non-Performing Loans of All Banks (since FY1992) | 58.8 | 1999-03-31 | Financial Services Agency, Supervisory Coordination Division, Supervisory Bureau 2020 Table 5 "Cumulative total from FY1992 onwards" |
| Figure 4 | Cumulative Losses on Disposal of Non-Performing Loans of All Banks (since FY1992) | 65.7 | 2000-03-31 | Financial Services Agency, Supervisory Coordination Division, Supervisory Bureau 2020 Table 5 "Cumulative total from FY1992 onwards" |
| Figure 4 | Cumulative Losses on Disposal of Non-Performing Loans of All Banks (since FY1992) | 71.8 | 2001-03-31 | Financial Services Agency, Supervisory Coordination Division, Supervisory Bureau 2020 Table 5 "Cumulative total from FY1992 onwards" |
| Figure 4 | Cumulative Losses on Disposal of Non-Performing Loans of All Banks (since FY1992) | 81.5 | 2002-03-31 | Financial Services Agency, Supervisory Coordination Division, Supervisory Bureau 2020 Table 5 "Cumulative total from FY1992 onwards" |
| Figure 4 | Cumulative Losses on Disposal of Non-Performing Loans of All Banks (since FY1992) | 88.2 | 2003-03-31 | Financial Services Agency, Supervisory Coordination Division, Supervisory Bureau 2020 Table 5 "Cumulative total from FY1992 onwards" |
| Figure 4 | Cumulative Losses on Disposal of Non-Performing Loans of All Banks (since FY1992) | 93.6 | 2004-03-31 | Financial Services Agency, Supervisory Coordination Division, Supervisory Bureau 2020 Table 5 "Cumulative total from FY1992 onwards" |
| Figure 4 | Cumulative Losses on Disposal of Non-Performing Loans of All Banks (since FY1992) | 96.4 | 2005-03-31 | Financial Services Agency, Supervisory Coordination Division, Supervisory Bureau 2020 Table 5 "Cumulative total from FY1992 onwards" |
| Figure 4 | Cumulative Losses on Disposal of Non-Performing Loans of All Banks (since FY1992) | 99.0 | 2008-03-31 | Financial Services Agency, Supervisory Coordination Division, Supervisory Bureau 2020 Table 5 "Cumulative total from FY1992 onwards" |
| Figure 4 | Cumulative Losses on Disposal of Non-Performing Loans of All Banks (since FY1992) | 103.7 | 2010-03-31 | Financial Services Agency, Supervisory Coordination Division, Supervisory Bureau 2020 Table 5 "Cumulative total from FY1992 onwards" |
| Figure 4 | Cumulative Losses on Disposal of Non-Performing Loans of All Banks (since FY1992) | 105.9 | 2015-03-31 | Financial Services Agency, Supervisory Coordination Division, Supervisory Bureau 2020 Table 5 "Cumulative total from FY1992 onwards" |
| Figure 4 | Cumulative Losses on Disposal of Non-Performing Loans of All Banks (since FY1992) | 107.2 | 2020-03-31 | Financial Services Agency, Supervisory Coordination Division, Supervisory Bureau 2020 Table 5 "Cumulative total from FY1992 onwards" |
| Figure 5 | Plaza Accord. To counter the strong yen and recession, the official discount rate is lowered to 2.5%. | — | September 1985 | — |
| Figure 5 | Commercial land prices in the Tokyo metropolitan area rise by 76.1% in one year. Lending collateralized by land increases. | — | July 1987 | — |
| Figure 5 | Nikkei average reaches 38,915 yen. This is the peak. | — | December 29, 1989 | — |
| Figure 5 | Notice on real estate financing restrictions. Three months after the stock market peak. | — | March 27, 1990 | — |
| Figure 5 | Disposal of non-performing loans. Cumulative total of 107.2204 trillion yen up to the fiscal year ending March 2020. | — | From fiscal year ending March 1993 | — |
Read moreWhat this shows
The historical sources are divided into four groups. First, official documents and public statistics. I consulted the Bank of Japan's table of official discount rates, the Cabinet Office's reference dates of business cycles and long-term economic statistics, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's table of land price fluctuation rates (year-on-year as of July 1 of each year), and the Financial Services Agency's table of losses on disposal of non-performing loans, all on their respective creators' websites. Second, the Diet proceedings. I read the Finance Minister's statement on March 27, 1990, when the directive was issued, the supplementary explanation by the Director-General of the Banking Bureau the next day, the Budget Committee on April 3, and the Finance and Construction Committees on February 26, 1992, after the directive was lifted, and from these, I extracted the content of the directive, the month of its implementation, and the circumstances of its repeal. The original text of the directive itself is not included in the sources cited here. Third, a paper from the Bank of Japan's Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies. I read the full text of Kunio Okina, Masaaki Shirakawa, and Shigenori Shiratsuka (2001) and have relied on it for many of the values and the policy timeline. Fourth, an article by the creator of an index. Only the beginning of a 2011 article from the Nikkei is publicly available.
These sources have biases. The paper by Okina et al. is a reflection by Bank of Japan staff on their own policies, and the chapter on 'Reasons for the Delay in Monetary Tightening' is written from that perspective. The remarks by the Chairman of the Policy Board and the monthly research report from April 1990 are read not in their original form but to the extent they are quoted in the authors' English translation. The Diet proceedings include statements from the Ministry of Finance and the National Land Agency, as well as criticisms from Diet members, but they are not records from the perspective of financial institutions or borrowers. Land price statistics vary by use and city; the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's land price table is as of July 1 (the name of the statistic is not written on the table's page), while the Urban Land Price Index uses values from the end of March and the end of September. The values for the Urban Land Price Index are taken not from the original statistics but from the paper by Okina et al.
Research perspectives differ. Okina et al. argue that there was no single factor, but rather that the proactive behavior of financial institutions, prolonged monetary easing, the land tax system and regulations, weak discipline, and confidence in Japan became intertwined through the 'reinforcement of bullish expectations.' They assess that monetary easing was a necessary but not sufficient condition, and that even with earlier tightening, the bubble's formation could not have been prevented, only its collapse would have been hastened. Bernanke and Gertler (1999) estimated that it could have been prevented if interest rates had been raised from 4% to 8% in 1988. Yoshitomi (1998) attributes the cause to the increase in real estate-related lending and proposes strengthening prudential regulation rather than monetary policy as a countermeasure. For Noguchi (1992), Nikkei Inc. (2000), and Muramatsu and Okuno (2002), only the titles and publication details were confirmed. Different studies have different views on the causes, and it is not possible to determine which is correct.
Okina et al. also compare it to the bubble after World War I. Land capital gains were 335% of GNP from 1913-19, and the loss was 43% from 1924-30. The 367% from 1986-90 and 107% from 1991-93 show a similar rate of increase, but a larger decrease. They write that the rate of stock price fluctuations was unchanged, but the decline in economic activity after the collapse was smaller in the 1980s. I note this here as an example of two events in the same country measured by the same yardstick.
Official Documents
- Reference Dates of Business Cycles
- Announcement the Ministers of Finance and Central Bank Governors of France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States (Plaza Accord), September 22, 1985
- Changes in the Basic Discount Rate and Basic Loan Rate (formerly published as the 'Official Discount Rate') - List of Published Data
- Trends in Average Year-on-Year Change Rate since 1976 (Residential, Commercial, All Uses)
- Long-Term Economic Statistics, System of National Accounts (5/5) Gross National Assets and National Wealth — Annual Report on the Japanese Economy and Public Finance, FY2022
- (Table 5) Trends in losses on disposal of non-performing loans, etc. (All Banks) — Status of claims disclosed under the Financial Reconstruction Act for the term ending March 2020
- 118th National Diet, House of Representatives, Committee on Finance, No. 6, March 27, 1990 (Responses by Minister of Finance Ryutaro Hashimoto and Banking Bureau Director-General Masaaki Tsuchida)
- 118th National Diet, House of Representatives, Committee on Finance, No. 7, March 28, 1990 (Supplementary explanation by Banking Bureau Director-General Masaaki Tsuchida and response by Tax Bureau Director-General Mamoru Ozaki)
- 118th National Diet, House of Representatives, Committee on Budget, No. 4, April 3, 1990 (Responses by Banking Bureau Director-General Masaaki Tsuchida and Minister of Finance Ryutaro Hashimoto)
- 123rd National Diet, House of Representatives, Committee on Finance, No. 4, February 26, 1992 (Response by Banking Bureau Director-General Masaaki Tsuchida: Lifting of quantitative restrictions on real estate lending)
- 123rd National Diet, House of Representatives, Committee on Construction, No. 1, February 26, 1992 (Statement by National Land Agency Director-General Yoshiyuki Tōya and response by Land Bureau Director-General Michio Chinzei: Background to the lifting of quantitative restrictions)
Institutional Accounts
Causes and Policy Responsibility
There is no single factor. Easing was a necessary but not sufficient condition. Even with early tightening, the bubble could not have been prevented, and it might have burst earlier, resulting in less damage.
Kunio Okina, Masaaki Shirakawa, Shigenori Shiratsuka 2001It could have been prevented by raising interest rates from 4% to 8% in 1988.
Kunio Okina, Masaaki Shirakawa, Shigenori Shiratsuka 2001The cause was an increase in real estate-related lending. The response was to strengthen prudential regulations.
Kunio Okina, Masaaki Shirakawa, Shigenori Shiratsuka 2001Not referenced in the main text (only title and publication confirmed)
Yukio Noguchi 1992Not referenced in the main text (only title and publication confirmed)
Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Inc. (ed.) 2000Definition of the Bubble Period
1987–1990 (simultaneous rise in asset prices, economic activity, money, and credit). Does not adopt a definition based on deviation from equilibrium prices.
Kunio Okina, Masaaki Shirakawa, Shigenori Shiratsuka 2001Effect of the Quantitative Restrictions
The growth of land-related lending was generally brought under control.
National Diet Library, Search System for Minutes of the Diet 1992The introduction was almost simultaneous with the collapse of the bubble. When expectations are strong, quantitative restrictions create loopholes.
Kunio Okina, Masaaki Shirakawa, Shigenori Shiratsuka 2001It was too little, too late, and withdrawn before it could achieve results / If only the trigger mechanism had been implemented sooner.
National Diet Library, Search System for Minutes of the Diet 1992Read moreBibliography (17 items)
- The Asset Price Bubble and Monetary Policy: Japan's Experience in the Late 1980s and the Lessons Okina Kunio, Shirakawa Masaaki, Shiratsuka Shigenori — Bank of Japan, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Monetary and Economic Studies 19(S-1)・2001-02・Open source
- Reference Dates of Business Cycles Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office・Open source
- Urban Land Price Index Japan Real Estate Institute・Open source
- Announcement the Ministers of Finance and Central Bank Governors of France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States (Plaza Accord), September 22, 1985 G5 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (Copy of the announcement: University of Toronto G7 Information Centre)・1985-09-22・Open source
- Changes in the Basic Discount Rate and Basic Loan Rate (Formerly Posted as the Official Discount Rate) - List of Published Data Bank of Japan・Open source
- Changes in Average Year-on-Year Fluctuation Rates Since 1976 (Residential, Commercial, All Uses) Land Price Research Division, Land and Water Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism・Open source
- Long-Term Economic Statistics, System of National Accounts (5/5) Gross National Assets and National Wealth — Annual Report on the Japanese Economy and Public Finance 2022 Cabinet Office (Annual Report on the Japanese Economy and Public Finance, Long-Term Economic Statistics)・Open source
- (Table 5) Changes in Losses on Disposal of Non-Performing Loans, etc. (All Banks) — Status of Claims Disclosed under the Financial Reconstruction Act for the Term Ended March 2020 Supervisory Coordination Division, Supervisory Bureau, Financial Services Agency・Open source
- 118th National Diet, House of Representatives, Committee on Finance, No. 6, March 27, 1990 (Statements by Minister of Finance Ryutaro Hashimoto and Director-General of the Banking Bureau Masaaki Tsuchida) National Diet Library, Search System for Minutes of Diet Proceedings (House of Representatives Minutes)・1990-03-27・Open source
- 118th National Diet, House of Representatives, Committee on Finance, No. 7, March 28, 1990 (Supplementary explanation by Director-General of the Banking Bureau Masaaki Tsuchida and statement by Director-General of the Tax Bureau Mamoru Ozaki) National Diet Library, Search System for Minutes of Diet Proceedings (House of Representatives Minutes)・1990-03-28・Open source
- 118th National Diet, House of Representatives, Committee on the Budget, No. 4, April 3, 1990 (Statements by Director-General of the Banking Bureau Masaaki Tsuchida and Minister of Finance Ryutaro Hashimoto) National Diet Library, Search System for Minutes of Diet Proceedings (House of Representatives Minutes)・1990-04-03・Open source
- 123rd National Diet, House of Representatives, Committee on Finance, No. 4, February 26, 1992 (Statement by Director-General of the Banking Bureau Masaaki Tsuchida: Lifting of quantitative restrictions on real estate lending) National Diet Library, Search System for Minutes of Diet Proceedings (House of Representatives Minutes)・1992-02-26・Open source
- 123rd National Diet, House of Representatives, Committee on Construction, No. 1, February 26, 1992 (Policy speech by Director-General of the National Land Agency Yoshiyuki Tōya and statement by Director-General of the Land Bureau Michio Chinzei: Background to the lifting of quantitative restrictions) National Diet Library, Search System for Minutes of Diet Proceedings (House of Representatives Minutes)・1992-02-26・Open source
- December 29, 1989: Nikkei Average Hits Record High (Archive) Nikkei Inc.・Open source
- The Economics of the Bubble: What Happened to the Japanese Economy? Noguchi Yukio — Nihon Keizai Shimbunsha・1992-11・Open source
- Investigating the Bubble: A Mistake Without Malice Edited by Nihon Keizai Shimbunsha — Nihon Keizai Shimbunsha・2000-09・Open source
- A Study of the Heisei Bubble (Volumes 1 and 2) Edited by Muramatsu Michio and Okuno Masahiro — Toyo Keizai Inc.・2002-03・Open source
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