A story everyone knows isn't always a story someone has verified.
The number of times something is cited isn't proof.
Is It Really True? Checking History
We re-examine the origins of money and famous anecdotes, comparing them with historical records and actual artifacts.
Time to read the text: about 8 min ／ Time to read the in-depth book: about 88 min
The review questions are optional and not included in this time.
What you can read: everything, free
How to Verify Historical 'Facts' in 3 Minutes
1See it
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Around 1780 BCE
Clay tablets are the actual records. This one recorded a loan of barley.
Two cylinder seals are impressed on it.
The most we can say is that 'no records of a barter-based society have been found.'
Saying for sure 'it didn't exist' is going a step too far.
'It is said that...' 'Approximately...' Signs of uncertainty fall into six types.
Tradition, estimate, various theories, common theory, omission, correction.
Separate measured numbers from estimated ones. Trust the significant digits, but not the last ones.
1.446g
The standard weight written in the minting records (a measured number).
Doubt is the starting point. Go back to the original records and draw the line at what can actually be said.
Saying something is false isn't the conclusion; it's part of the process.
The more famous a quote is, the more important it is to check its source.
Who wrote it? Did the person themselves write it? When did the quote emerge?
When you have a range of numbers, use the whole range. Only the person who did the research can state the range.
The gold in Osaka Castle is said to be 18,000 pieces, or 28,060 pieces.
There are three kinds of 'missing': it was never recorded, it was lost, or it never existed in the first place.
First, figure out which type of 'missing' it is.
2In numbers
128cases
The most common sign of uncertainty across eight sources: 'estimate' (numbers given as a range).
1.337g
The weight of pure silver, calculated from a total weight of 1.446g and a purity of 0.925.
3What would you do?
The original record says, 'The number of soldiers is said to be approximately 27,000 to 40,000. The number differs between sources.' If you were writing a description, how would you put it?
Pick one
Write 'about 30,000 soldiers' to keep it simple.
It's easier to read, yes. But the moment you do, you erase three signs of uncertainty: estimate, tradition, and conflicting sources.
Write out the full range: 'said to be approximately 27,000 to 40,000'.
This is the correct way for this course. A range isn't a weakness. Only the person who has verified the information can state the range.
Trust the significant digits, not the last ones. Trust the range, not the definitive number. Let's remember these two principles together.
4Read more
There is an account that "money was born from the inconvenience of barter." The passage most often cited is Book I, Chapter 4 of Adam Smith's *The Wealth of Nations* (1776).
Smith introduces the scene in which a butcher, a baker and a brewer cannot easily trade with one another with the words "we shall suppose." For cattle used in trade he cites Homer, and for metals he cites Pliny. But he gives no record of a society that lived by barter.
In 1913, Mitchell-Innes wrote that this account rested on nothing more than Smith's words, a few passages from Homer and Aristotle, and the records of travellers. Pointing to new discoveries in Babylonia, he argued that it had no solid historical support.
Old clay tablets preserve accounts of distributions and loans. The Metropolitan Museum of Art holds an account of the distribution of barley and emmer wheat from around 3100–2900 BC, and a record of a loan of barley from around 1780 BC.
Read a scene written as a supposition and the records that survive as two separate things.
Source criticism is the habit of quietly asking, "Where is that written?" and checking whether what comes back is a record or a supposition.
What you will understand after this course
- You can find a hedge in a passage and name which of the six types it is.
- You can explain why the difference between "is said to have" and "was" is decisive.
- On meeting a number, you can judge whether to trust its order of magnitude or its final digit.
The book for this course
『Is It Really True? Checking History』
A complete illustrated book. 23 figures, about 88 min, free in full
More about this course
Course number: E1
Supervised by: Mitsuru Hayama
Beyond the text: 14 exercises · 4 coins · 10 readings · 4 references How reading times are calculated
You will also understand
- You can remove, from your own writing, claims that have no source.
- Can check the sources of famous sayings, principles, and anecdotes using three concrete examples.
- Can distinguish between and handle three types of "absence": unrecorded, lost, and non-existent from the start.
Assessment
14 exercises in this course (6 check, 0 compare, 8 written). Progress is recorded by self-assessment.
The 8 chapters of this course
- "Everybody knows" is not the same as "somebody checked"The number of citations is not evidence. Only sources are.
- There are six kinds of hedgeA hedge is not the writer's weakness but the mark of honesty. Never delete it.
- Trust the order of magnitude, not the last digitSeparate measured numbers from estimated ones when you write. Read with the same eye.
- Doubting is not the same as denyingDoubt is the doorway to inquiry. Denying without inquiry is as lazy as believing.
- Investigating the Sources of Famous SayingsFamous quotes, laws, and anecdotes often have weak sources. Learn the steps for checking them with three examples.
- How to Read Ranges — The Integrity of Numbers"Approximately," "there is a range," and "varies by source" are not weaknesses. Be more suspicious of numbers where the range has been removed.
- How to Read "Absence" — Three SilencesUnwritten, lost, or never there to begin with. Treat the three types of "absence" separately.
- How to Use NOMISMA — Search, Compare, Reserve JudgmentLook up, read across two sections, mark your reservations, and write in your own words. The learning circuit follows this four-step rhythm.
Real-life examples in this course (10)
- The Mongol invasions Japan 1274 Hakata Bay, Chikuzen
An example with "estimate," "tradition" and "opinions differ" layered three deep in a single sentence. Check it in the original. - Hellenism Overview: the world 155 BC Menander's India
How "it is said that" is used. A real instance of writing that does not assert. - The coin comes again Japan 1157 The Greater Imperial Palace, Kyoto
A tradition about a person's abilities. Material for asking who wrote it down, when and why. - Gresham and the recoinage Britain 1560–1858 London, and a study of a later age
Section 5. The most famous real-life example of a name and its contents dating to different eras. - The price of the realm Japan 1615–1616 Osaka and Kunozan
Section 6. A real-life example of a writing style that presents a range of records as a range. - The Wadō kaichin Japan from 708 On the coin's inscription
Section 7. Silence due to the self-evident. The interpretation that official histories failed to record. - A biography in a single coin Overview: the world now Why We Cherish a Single Coin
Section 8. What it means to hold history in one's own hands. - Letters from the Mud Russia 11th–15th centuries Novgorod
This is not a royal decree or a mint ledger, but a demand for payment from one anonymous person to another. Please see what monetary history looks like when viewed from below, through the text on this 900-year-old piece of bark. - A Rare Coin India 1509–1529 A Blank in Numismatic History
This is a passage that presents the fact that a weight of 3.4 grams appeared twice, two thousand years apart, without any material to explain why. Please observe the technique of closing the chapter without offering an unsubstantiated explanation. - From county to kingdom (2) Portugal the 12th century A minting workshop in Coimbra
How precisely can one date a coin for which no contemporary issuance records survive? One can see a writing style that simply presents, side-by-side, the account dating it to 1128 and the view that it is from after 1179.
References
- An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations — Book I, Chapter IV: Of the Origin and Use of Money — Adam Smith (1904 edition by Edwin Cannan, Econlib). The original source (1776) for the explanation that 'money arose from the inconveniences of barter'. In Book 1, Chapter 4, the scene of the inconvenience of barter is described as a hypothesis, beginning with 'we shall suppose'. The full text is available.
- What Is Money? — A. Mitchell Innes — The Banking Law Journal, Vol. 30, No. 5 (May 1913), pp. 377–408（Internet Archive） Wrote that the explanation of the origin of barter is supported only by Smith's words, a few passages from Homer and Aristotle, and travelers' accounts, and argued, citing discoveries in Babylonia, that it lacks historical backing (p. 378).
- Barter and Economic Disintegration — Caroline Humphrey — Man (N.S.) Vol. 20, No. 1 (1985), pp. 48–72 An anthropological paper on barter and economic collapse. Not cited in the main text of this course as the full text has not been read (JSTOR subscription required).
- Gresham's Law — George Selgin — EH.Net Encyclopedia of Economic and Business History An investigation into the origin of "bad money drives out good." It clarifies that this was not Gresham's own phrase but was coined by H. D. Macleod in 1858, and outlines the conditions under which the law holds.
The books and materials referred to in this course.
Price
After purchase, the full courses, the illustrated books, every country’s story and the numismatics examination are open to you.
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