Cliometrics

F7　—　A Neighboring Discipline

This course seriously considers the question, "How much was a Roman soldier's annual salary in today's terms?" You will learn how to interpret two millennia of price and wage data, and the limits of such calculations.

Supervised by: Mitsuru Hayama　／　Reading time (main text): About 6 min (3,200 characters of text at 500 chars/min; exercises and readings not included)　／　Beyond the text: 6 exercises · 1 coins · 4 readings · 1 references

What this course teaches you to do

• Can explain that converting ancient wages to modern values is a problem of "choosing the yardstick for conversion."
• Can discuss Hamilton's method of aggregation and its limitations as a model for cliometrics.
• Can develop an intuitive sense of rates through annualization (e.g., quadrupling in 100 years = 1.4% per year).
• Can practice the method of explicitly stating what cannot be counted.

Lessons (6)

1. Annual Salary of a Roman Soldier — The Conundrum of ConversionWhether you measure in silver, in bread, or in days of labor, the choice of standard changes the answer by an order of magnitude.
2. A Landmark in Aggregation — Hamilton's MethodComprehensiveness of primary sources, publication of figures, and stating limitations. Why a compilation from the 1930s remains a model today.
3. An Intuition for Rates — Reading a Fourfold Increase in a Century as an Annual PercentageEven the "Revolution" becomes 1.4% when annualized. An intuition for rates allows for a reading that is not swayed by names.
4. Calculating War Expenses — The Compiler Who Indicated the RangeMilitary expenses of over 41,560,000 yen "vary considerably depending on the source." The proper method is to quote this, including the explicit statement of the range.
5. Whose Prices? — The Econometrics of DistributionInflation was advantageous for the villages and disadvantageous for the towns and the state. Beneath the average price level lie separate profit and loss statements.
6. An Inventory of the Uncountable — The Practice of Acknowledging the Limits of MeasurementThe number of cases is the volume of description; finds reflect the bias of those who buried them; ledgers show only what is inside the customs house. An inventory of limitations protects measurement.

Readings (4)

• The price revolution　Spain　1503–1660　Seville, the archive of the official register
  Section 2. A monumental achievement in methodology. An exemplar, including its explicit statement of limitations.
• The price revolution　Spain　1501–1600　A town of Castile
  Section 3. The meaning of an annual rate of 1.4%. The separation of name and velocity.
• The Satsuma Rebellion and inflation　Japan　1877　Tokyo, the Paper Money Bureau
  Section 4. The compiler who specified the range, and the citation for each range.
• The Satsuma Rebellion and inflation　Japan　1878–1881　town and village
  Section 5. Decomposing the average. Who profited and who lost?

Assessment

6 exercises in this course (4 check, 1 compare, 1 written). Progress is recorded by self-assessment.

References

• The 2014–15 Financial Crisis in Russia and the Foundations of Weak Monetary Power Autonomy — New Political Economy (Taylor & Francis)（2019）　A political-economic analysis of currency crises (peer-reviewed journal). Includes Black Tuesday (2014-12-16).

Only works and primary sources whose existence has been verified are listed.